Northeast U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD Colder Than last 3 Winter Seasons

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Highlight: 12Z GFS is wetter Texas days 6-10 followed by a push of the warmth westward days 11-15.

Fig. 1: In the chart of the day, the updated gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-21 to MAR-22 in the Northeast U.S.

Northeast HDD: The gas population weight HDD forecast for the Northeast region for NOV-21 through MAR-22 indicates a colder outlook for most of the time compared to the last 3 years and also a forecast very close to the new 30-year normal (Fig. 1).

The most interesting changes in the 6-10-day period using the 12Z GFS was agreement with ECM on a wet pattern across Texas and into the southern Great Plains (Fig. 2). In the 11-15-day period an upper trough drops to the northern Gulf States causing cooler changes East-central/Gulf States and pushing the very warm pattern into the Northwest States (Fig. 3).

Initiating gas population weight HDD forecasts today (Table 1). The HDD forecast amount is minimal, of course given the lack of cold weather.

Fig. 2-3: The 6-10-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. and the 11-15-day forecast of temperature anomalies.

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24 Hours Ago10-year NML30-year NML
Sep 17-2310.7-0.210.914.917.8
Sep 24-3012.8-2.29.422.726.6
Oct 1-711.9-11.914.132.337.8

Table 1: The 12Z GFS gas population weight HDD forecast compared to the 30-year/10-year normal and 12 and 24 hours ago.