Winter 2021-22 HDD Forecasts Trending Colder for U.S.

Discussion: Yesterday’s Climate Impact Company revised month 1-3 climate outlooks (which added January) caused gas population weight HDD projections to trend higher. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season is now very close to the (colder) 30-year normal (Fig. 1). The forecast is considerably colder than the 10-year normal especially for meteorological winter (Fig. 2). Also note that the cold season 2021-22 forecast is colder than the last 3 winter seasons. In a review of the population weight CDD observations and remaining forecasts for summer 2021 a relatively cool May was followed by hot months of June, August and to a lesser extent September while mid-summer was in-between the 30-year/10-year normal (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: The gas population weight HDD forecast for winter vs. 30-year normal.

Fig. 2: The gas population weight HDD forecast for winter vs. 10-year normal.

Fig. 3: A review of the population weight CDD observations/forecast for summer 2021.