GFS and ECM indicate hurricane risk for the U.S. in early October. One system approaches the East Coast another is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico arriving from the western Caribbean Sea.

In today's midday energy market update, the Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the Northeast U.S. for NOV-21 to MAR-22 yielded the coldest winter in 4 years.

In the Climate Impact Company U.S. Energy Market Sunday Report the prevailing upper air pattern across North America for the next 15 days according to the ECM ENS is warm and dry for the Central U.S., wet into the Northwest U.S. and wet in the East. The upper shear axis should keep Atlantic tropical cyclones out-to-sea.

Yesterday’s Climate Impact Company revised month 1-3 climate outlooks (which added January) caused gas population weight HDD projections to trend higher. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season is now very close to the (colder) 30-year normal.