Colorado State University has raised the 2021 seasonal activity forecast for North Atlantic tropical cyclones to 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The ACE index is now 160. The Climate Impact Company concern is amounts could be higher due to the lingering La Nina climate as defined by multi-variate ENSO index.

Unseasonably cool air stretches across Argentina into southeastern Brazil this morning. On average, temperatures are 15-20F below normal across southwest and southeast Brazil to northern Argentina and >25F below normal over Paraguay. The far southern coffee crop area in southeastern Brazil is in the low 30’s/upper 20’s (-3C to -1C) toward dawn.

An Excessive Heat Warning continues in the Northwest U.S. stretching into parts of California and north to Calgary by tomorrow. Seattle, Portland and Spokane will break all-time records for the June 27-July 6 stretch.

The North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.23C and slightly cooler (-0.07C) during the past week. The complexion of the North Atlantic SSTA is nearly opposite of this time last year. The North Atlantic tropics/subtropics are very close to normal in June 2021 while last year SSTA was somewhat warmer than normal.