A tropical system emerging in the Bay of Campeche is possible over-the-weekend. If so, a northwest turn toward the southern Texas coast is expected. The western Gulf of Mexico water surface is somewhat warmer than normal and could lead to a suddenly rapid intensification of a tropical system.

In today's midday update the 12Z GFS indicated a potential major hurricane east of Florida in the 11-15 day period. Models have shown a consistent risk of a tropical feature in this zone at this time much of this week.

Mindy became the 13th named storm of the 2021 tropical cyclone season late yesterday and is now inland weakening to a depression. The next significant tropical rainfall event for the U.S. begins this weekend and lasts through next week on the coast of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 5-10 in. of rain (or more) is possible although not directly related to a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance 91L is drifting northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle and is strengthening. There is a slight risk 91L could become a tropical storm before making landfall early tomorrow on the Florida Panhandle.