The cool-to-cold season 2021-22 starts off exactly the opposite of last year with a warm October and increasingly colder November. December and January also look colder than last year.

Sharp thermal contrast across the Pacific Ocean was characteristic of the global SSTA analysis for October 2021. Featured is developing La Nina and a lengthy cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation which is intensifying. Meanwhile "warm blobs" of SSTA common the past 10 years are prevailing near the Dateline in both hemispheres across the Pacific!

Upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial Pacific plunges to the lowest level since September 2010. Indicated is plenty of fuel to allow La Nina to intensify which it will likely to peak in December.

-WPO/-EPO climate signals regained recognition during the 2013-14/2014-15 “polar vortex” winter seasons in North America and again on single events such as last February’s ERCOT freeze. This time around, -WPO and -EPO (-EPO climatology shown) reach moderate intensity (-1.0 to -1.5) which typically produces a chilly pattern during autumn over west-central/central North America.