Fig. 1-2: ECM precipitation forecast for the Black Sea region for the next 10 days.
Black Sea discussion: Ukraine is mostly dry and milder than normal in the 5-day forecast while an upper trough causes rain (and some snow) to evolve not far to the south (Fig. 1). In the 6-10-day period the upper trough south of Ukraine strengthens and precipitation mostly over Turkey is more expansive and heavier. Some of the (mostly) rain extends north to southwest Ukraine in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 2).
A pattern change toward a colder regime is indicated in the 8-14/11-15-day period for Western Russia and the Black Sea region likely stretching westward into Europe (Fig. 3). The culprit is an elongating longwave upper trough. Precipitation increases beneath the upper trough and is mostly snow due to the colder weather (Fig. 4). Much of this region has been unusually mild in February…unwanted colder air (increased Europe energy demand) is ahead.
Fig. 3: The ECM ENS indicates a colder pattern change unfolding over Europe/Black Sea region.
Fig. 4: GFS 11-15-day precipitation anomaly forecast produces a snowy pattern in West/Southwest Russia to Eastern Europe.