Suddenly, both the Nino34 and Nino3 (east-central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean) regions cool to the La Nina threshold of -0.5C last week. The cooler SSTA are linked to cooler upper ocean heat in the east-central Pacific last week.

Historic heat continues to worsen the extreme California/Great Basin/Southwest drought region. Longer-term, the anomalous heat and dryness is likely to focus on the Northwest States.

Rainfall required to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has increased in the Midwest States, Northeast region and the Southeast particularly Florida. Western deficits maintain their severe dry signatures. The North Dakota deficits eased last week.

A new concern area is evolving drought in Iowa. Soil moisture is in deficit for the northern 2/3 of the state. In June so far, soil moisture trend is much drier for Iowa and southern Minnesota of the western Corn Belt.