While much of Brazil has been soaking wet in recent months, the southeast has remained mostly dry. Additionally, long-term rainfall deficits imply deep layer soil moisture dryness. Northeast Argentina is trending very dry and hot to help accelerate drought concerns.

A review of the NOAA/CPC long-lead climate outlooks issued late last week compared to Climate Impact Company (for January).

The morning weather satellite picture across South America identifies the prevailing early meteorological summer pattern. A persistent upper trough extending from well east of Uruguay to northeast Brazil maintains a wet pattern for much of Brazil. However, trailing the upper trough, an upper ridge brings a dry climate pattern to Argentina to far Southeast Brazil.

We're in a pattern that may last well into summer...semi-permanent low-pressure east-southeast of Brazil and an attendant upper trough extending northwestward into Brazil causing steady rainfall compensated for by atmospheric subsidence causing dryness and heat in Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina raising drought concerns there.