Fig. 1-3: GFS identifies heavy rain areas across Australia in the latest 15-day forecast.
Discussion: The combination of warmer than normal SSTA surrounding Australia and a persistent positive phase of the southern annular mode (+SAM) leaves the weather pattern across the continent susceptible to heavy rain events. A tropical fetch of heavy rains is in-place along and off the northeast coast of Australia (Fig. 1) during the 15-day forecast. Excessive rains are likely on the north/northeast Queensland coast. The tropical fetch feeds a potent upper trough developing in the 6-10-day period causing heavy rains in southwest Queensland and vicinity (Fig. 2). In the 11-15-day period a potent storm brings potential excessive rainfall to the Australia West Coast (Fig. 3). In the short-term, a cold front is slow to shift through Southeast Australia bringing moderate-to-heavy rains to Southern New South Wales and Victoria.