Subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean warmth continues to shift eastward across the East Pacific decaying the cool waters that keep La Nina going. The Nino34 SSTA region has warmed to -0.6C as weak La Nina barely hangs on.

Another major storm has emerged across the Central and into the East U.S. for mid-to-late week featuring a swath of heavy snow, ice, heavy rains and following bitter cold. Of special importance is the risk of heavy icing tomorrow from near Memphis, TN to the southeast Ohio Valley.

The deep cold of mid-winter becomes choppy the first half of February maintaining above normal national heating demand for the U.S. However, later February the U.S. pattern shifts warmer.

The 12Z GFS indicates a long-duration snowfall event along and trailing a cold front which shifts eastward slowly this week. The snow begins tomorrow night in the south/east Great Plains and stretches to the Ohio Valley and then eastward into New England for later this week. GFS grinds out 1-2 feet of snow across this large area - which is likely excessive, but the model certainly makes its point.