Both the ECM and GFS re-intensify Fiona into a major hurricane late next week after the storm survives passage of the Hispaniola mountains early next week. ECM indicates Fiona approaches the Southeast U.S. Coast in 10 days. GFS is stronger with Fiona but keeps the northward traveling major hurricane offshore. Of course, the first issue is whether Fiona survives the Hispaniola Mountains.

Of importance to the 2022 tropical cyclone season is the much warmer than normal middle and northern latitudes of both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The warmer than normal ocean surface will allow north-turning tropical cyclones to maintain their intensity for longer periods of time. Danielle and Earl were examples of north-traveling storms maintaining intensity much farther north than usual.

Important changes are emerging in the tropical SSTA patterns. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean dramatic cooling has generated the past 1-2 weeks. La Nina is gaining strength rapidly!

The upper ocean heat near and east of the Dateline identify the La Nina peaks and valleys of the past year. Most recently, the upper ocean heat has diminished (cooled) and is supportive of restrengthening La Nina.