An area of low pressure is situated over far Southeast Mexico and is expected to consolidate into a more organized center in about 48 hours off the north coast of Belize. At that time, ECMWF indicates this system is likely a tropical depression. This system drifts north-northeastward on the back side of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge late this week and crosses water sufficient to allow intensification to a tropical storm.

Last week the Nino SSTA regions warmed as moderate intensity La Nina weakened slightly. The slight weakening trend is likely to continue although the La Nina climate pattern is likely to hold for 2022.

A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for the Mid-Atlantic States to 2PM EDT. A new watch for this afternoon extending across the northern Mid-Atlantic States is likely! The HRRR model identifies the axis of the squall line across west-central Virginia to far northeast South Carolina at 10AM. The squall line produces a tornado risk, wind gusts to 6-65 mph, heavy rain and moderate lightning frequencies. By 1PM EDT, the squall line reaches the Baltimore/Washington to Richmond stretch.

Since the middle 1990’s, the “activeness” of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity has generally been above too much above normal due to the long-term warm cycle of AMO and the lack of El Nino presence (only 24% of the months from 1995-2022).