Fluctuating Weak-to-Moderate Strength La Nina

Both Tropical and Non-Tropical Heavy Rains/Flash Flooding Southwest and Southeast This Weekend
09/09/2022, 9:32 am EDT
Strengthening La Nina and -IOD Pattern
09/14/2022, 8:06 am EDT
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Fig. 1: Subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies near and east of the Dateline for the past one year.

Discussion: The upper ocean heat near and east of the Dateline identify the La Nina peaks and valleys of the past year. Most recently, the upper ocean heat has diminished and is supportive of restrengthening La Nina (Fig. 1). Last week, the Nino SSTA regions cooled slightly after 2 weeks of slight warming (Fig. 2). Overall, a weak-to-moderate La Nina is present. The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA outlook indicates La Nina continues and should strengthen during Q4/2022 followed by weakening early next year and possibly weak El Nino by middle 2023 (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: The 12-week Nino SSTA regions trend indicates cooling was observed last week.   

Fig. 3: The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast reveals La Nina continues in 2022 followed by a trend toward weak El Nino mid-2023.