Gathering storm clouds in the northwest Gulf of Mexico leads to a week of heavy rain featuring risk of >10 in. on the southeast Louisiana coast. Low-pressure is offshore and over the warm Gulf of Mexico therefore monitoring for a possible tropical system later this week is required.

Four lengthy La Nina precedents from the past 35 years indicate that historically, La Nina fades after 2 years. What follows is mixed with 2 analog years staying in neutral phase while 1 analog year surges into a strong El Nino and another returned to weak La Nina. In 1+ years the analog maintains an equal split between strong La Nina or El Nino plus 2 years staying in neutral phase.

A collision of extremes in the Midwest U.S. this morning. Extreme rainfall leads to flash flooding in Indiana and Ohio overnight. A flood watch extends from Indiana to West Virginia. Just south of the heavy rain belt, an Excessive Heat Warning is issued for the Missouri to Tennessee Valley(s).

The equatorial subsurface Pacific Ocean has warmed to above normal. If the warming trend continues La Nina will end and El Nino risk increases. The warming is expected to continue for another month or 2 and then re-cool later this year.