A tropical disturbance is forming in the eastern North Atlantic tropics. This system is likely to drift westward and approach the far northeast Caribbean Sea in 5 days. This system should strengthen moving into the central North Atlantic tropics.

ECMWF upper air forecasts for North America and Europe through February with annotated sensible weather interpretations identify ECMWF opinion of the climate pattern through meteorological winter 2022-23.

Not convenient is the developing hot/dry bias by the GFS (and all models are showing this problem) during the past 2+ weeks for the Central/Midwest U.S. Maximum temperatures are hot at times but nowhere near 2-meter forecasts offered primarily by the GFS.

The North Atlantic basin is steadily warming. However, there are regions with robust warming and cooling that combine and lead to the warm anomaly.