Possibly record warm SSTA off the East Asia Coast foreshadows a dry/hot upper ridge possibility for East China to Japan. In September, any land-falling typhoons will be much more powerful than normal due to the warm SSTA.

A well-defined upper-level LOW has formed over Cuba and is established over most levels of the atmosphere in that zone. An upper-level LOW in this region will be difficult to remove. If the upper-level LOW elongates southwestward with time the configuration of this feature takes-on a trough-like pattern rather than a closed low as we have now.

An extraordinary difference in temperature bias shown in 15-day forecasts from the past 30 days appears when comparing ECM ENS vs. GFS ENS. The ECM ENS is reasonable with patchy relatively small temperature bias slightly favoring the warm side. However, the GFS ENS is boldly too warm across the Southwest and Interior West U.S.

NOAA/SPC has raised the probability of damaging wind gusts in the Washington to Philadelphia stretch possibly reaching the NYC area for an incoming squall line forecast over this region by late this afternoon.