Europe soil moisture anomalies continue to indicate a drying trend due to the ongoing heatwave and attendant dryness. The precipitation outlook across central and southern Europe through the next 4 weeks remains mostly dry.

NOAA issues new climate long-lead probability forecasts which include a dry and mostly hot late warm season projection in the Central U.S. causing drought to expand to the Midwest States.

Medium-range forecasts trend wetter across the central Great Plains and particularly the U.S. Corn Belt as we try to deter spreading drought caused by the current hot/dry weather pattern. However, a pattern change featuring an upper-level ridge over the Midwest U.S. is seen in 15 days.

The subsurface warming has started to reverse. During the past 7-10 days the upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is now cooler than normal (again). The cooler change suggests La Nina will continue.