The GFS produced a consistent tropical cyclone risk in their medium/extended-range forecasts since late last week. However, the GFS has dropped that idea late last night and today. Instead, GFS produces an excessive rainfall episode as an upper trough entrains western Gulf of Mexico moisture next week producing >10 in. of rain in some spots based on today’s 12Z GFS.

GFS is consistent forecasting evolution of a significant tropical cyclone in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula later next week. This potential system is characterized as “significant” due to the possibility this system could become a hurricane in the open Gulf moving northward in late May.

Based on the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), La Nina 2020-22 has reached a 3rd peak intensity at -1.5 for MAR/AUG 2022. Previous peak MEI were observed in June and October of 2021.

The early season high fire risk is well-established over New Mexico. Also of concern is northern California and western Texas plus the far northwest Great Plains. During summer, the high fire risk in northern California spreads northward. High fire risk also expands across the Great Plains during summertime.