The North Atlantic regional SSTA vary widely. Off the U.S. East Coast waters have warmed to +0.66C, a change of +0.40C during the past 30 days. In the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes located in-between the Caribbean Sea and northwest coast of Africa the SSTA is marginally warm (+0.30C) and while warmer than 2-4 weeks ago, the past week has shown slight cooling. In the Gulf of Mexico, the basin is near normal and has cooled 0.24C during the past 30 days.

The U.S. Drought Monitor identifies rare severe drought across east and southeast New England. The drought has strengthened during mid-summer due to limited rainfall and periods of extreme heat. However, seasonal forecasts for late summer/autumn 2022 are wetter than normal.

Inhibiting tropical cyclone development across the western half of the North Atlantic basin in July and into August is evolution of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). In the upper troposphere, on average, wind direction is out of the north across the Gulf of Mexico and becomes westerly in the Caribbean Sea and then northerly over Puerto Rico on the back side of an upper-level ridge pattern in the southeast North Atlantic.

Tropical Disturbance 97L has formed in the outer tropical North Atlantic basin. 97L has gained clarity today and may be a little farther west than indicated by NOAA/NHC. The preliminary 5-day forecast by Climate Impact Company (CIC) indicates west to west-northwest travel almost to the far northeast Caribbean Sea and likelihood of intensification to a tropical storm.