Today’s GFS Indicates 3 Tropical Cyclones Between 40N and 45N by September 9th

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Highlight: Wild looking tropical map for Sep. 9th!

Fig. 1-2: 12Z GFS projected tropical cyclone locations for Sep. 9th and the 24-hour cooler temperature change for the 11-15-day forecast.

Discussion: Is this a climate change graphic? The 12Z GFS projects a tropical storm and two hurricanes between 40N and 45N latitude (Fig. 1) for Sep. 9th. The middle location storm is what GFS is forecasting for 91L. The farthest north system is “Danielle”. The 3rd system east of New England forms east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Note that the tropics are free and clear. The most dramatic change in the 12Z GFS temperature forecast is the cooler Central/Southeast 24-hour change (Fig. 2) also evident in the somewhat lower CDD forecast for Sep. 9-15 (Table 1). The Canadian Meteorological Center issued a meteorological autumn forecast which indicates anomalous warmth for most of the nation (except northwest sections) while the precipitation forecast is very dry for Southern Canada to the U.S. Upper Midwest and Northeast States (Fig. 3-4).


Fig. 3-4: Canadian Meteorological Center probabilistic temperature and temperature outlooks for meteorological autumn 2022.

DatesCDD Forecast12-Hr Change24 Hours Ago10-Year NML30-Year NML
Aug. 26-Sep.
Sep. 2-8


Sep. 9-15



Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.