Fig. 1: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.
Discussion: The North Atlantic basin is producing significant tropical cyclones but they are well out-to-sea and more of a threat to Europe than North America (Fig. 1). During the north-northeast turn of Hurricane Earl, the storm is likely to gain major hurricane status, the first of the season, while just-missing Bermuda to the east late this week. Early continues a northeast trek over cooler waters and encounters upper shear to weaken the storm quickly once north of 45N latitude. Early appears headed for Eastern Greenland early next week.
“Resilient” Hurricane Danielle will weaken to a tropical storm in about 36 hours while traveling east-northeastward followed by a loop and back to the southeast staying north of the Azores but likely to bash Portugal, France and the Southern British Isles early-to-middle of next week.
A new tropical disturbance emerges today to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system should strengthen rapidly to a tropical storm but hurricane intensity is not likely. The storm turns north in 3-4 days and weakens beneath upper shear in 5 days while accelerating northward.
Another potential tropical disturbance is moving off the West Africa coast.
The western North Atlantic basin remains ALL CLEAR.