The Q4/2022 climate forecast for Australia stays wet in the East largely due to a persistent La Nina climate. There is risk of excessive rains on parts of the East Coast to finish 2022. La Nina (and negative Indian Ocean dipole) will ease early in 2023.

The warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation coupled with a constricting polar ice cap have caused a dramatic warm-up of mid-latitude to tropical ocean temperatures providing increased upper ocean heat igniting stronger hurricanes.

Typhoon Noru will continue to strengthen over the South China Sea today and move into Central Vietnam in about 36 hours bringing 1-2 feet of rain. Another tropical cyclone may follow this weekend for North Vietnam.

The Climate Impact Company concern regarding the forecast track of Tropical Depression 9, which is certain to become a Gulf hurricane by early next week, is the more prominent hurricane forecast model HMNI and HWFI forecast track and intensities in the latest 5-day outlook.