An extraordinary difference in temperature bias shown in 15-day forecasts from the past 30 days appears when comparing ECM ENS vs. GFS ENS. The ECM ENS is reasonable with patchy relatively small temperature bias slightly favoring the warm side. However, the GFS ENS is boldly too warm across the Southwest and Interior West U.S.

NOAA/SPC has raised the probability of damaging wind gusts in the Washington to Philadelphia stretch possibly reaching the NYC area for an incoming squall line forecast over this region by late this afternoon.

Gathering storm clouds in the northwest Gulf of Mexico leads to a week of heavy rain featuring risk of >10 in. on the southeast Louisiana coast. Low-pressure is offshore and over the warm Gulf of Mexico therefore monitoring for a possible tropical system later this week is required.

Four lengthy La Nina precedents from the past 35 years indicate that historically, La Nina fades after 2 years. What follows is mixed with 2 analog years staying in neutral phase while 1 analog year surges into a strong El Nino and another returned to weak La Nina. In 1+ years the analog maintains an equal split between strong La Nina or El Nino plus 2 years staying in neutral phase.