The upper ocean heat near and east of the Dateline identify the La Nina peaks and valleys of the past year. Most recently, the upper ocean heat has diminished (cooled) and is supportive of restrengthening La Nina.

Tropical Storm Kay causes high wind, heavy rain and flash flooding across Southern California today. The heavy rain/flash flood risk expands into Central California tomorrow. A non-tropical heavy rain event causes heavy rain/flash flooding in the northeast Gulf States today.

The North Atlantic basin is producing significant tropical cyclones, but they are well out-to-sea and more of a threat to Europe than North America. The western North Atlantic basin remains protected from tropical cyclone risk by the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) still located over Western Cuba.

Is this a climate change graphic? The 12Z GFS projects a tropical storm and two hurricanes between 40N and 45N latitude for Sep. 9th. The middle location storm is what GFS is forecasting for 91L. The farthest north system is “Danielle”. The 3rd system east of New England forms east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Note that the tropics are free and clear.