HWRF indicates Fiona may intensify to a 938-939 MH intense hurricane Thursday night. If so, Fiona should reach the category-4 intense hurricane level. The old Saffir-Simpson Scale indicated <945 MB qualifies as a category-4 storm. Given the warm water and the convective tail into the tropics, this system should have no problem getting close to this level of intensity.

Both the ECM and GFS re-intensify Fiona into a major hurricane late next week after the storm survives passage of the Hispaniola mountains early next week. ECM indicates Fiona approaches the Southeast U.S. Coast in 10 days. GFS is stronger with Fiona but keeps the northward traveling major hurricane offshore. Of course, the first issue is whether Fiona survives the Hispaniola Mountains.

Of importance to the 2022 tropical cyclone season is the much warmer than normal middle and northern latitudes of both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The warmer than normal ocean surface will allow north-turning tropical cyclones to maintain their intensity for longer periods of time. Danielle and Earl were examples of north-traveling storms maintaining intensity much farther north than usual.

Important changes are emerging in the tropical SSTA patterns. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean dramatic cooling has generated the past 1-2 weeks. La Nina is gaining strength rapidly!