China Cold Outbreak in 11-15 Days

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Highlight: China cold outbreak in 11-15 days.

Fig. 1-2: ECM ENS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast for East Asia identifies emergence of arctic air in the 6-10-day period surging into China after 10 days.

Discussion: Northern hemisphere snow cover is well ahead of schedule particularly across Asia. Presence of expansive snow cover increases the risk of pooling arctic air which is indicated this week and strengthening in the 6-10-day period in Central Asia/Russia (Fig. 1). At that time, China is somewhat warmer than normal. However, in the 11-15-day period all models agree that release of the arctic air into China is likely (Fig. 2). The air mass moderates slightly south of snow cover but remains quite cold featuring below zero (F) in northeast China with 32F reaching interior Southeast China early in the 11-15-day period.