Of importance to the 2022 tropical cyclone season is the much warmer than normal middle and northern latitudes of both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The warmer than normal ocean surface will allow north-turning tropical cyclones to maintain their intensity for longer periods of time. Danielle and Earl were examples of north-traveling storms maintaining intensity much farther north than usual.

Important changes are emerging in the tropical SSTA patterns. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean dramatic cooling has generated the past 1-2 weeks. La Nina is gaining strength rapidly!

The upper ocean heat near and east of the Dateline identify the La Nina peaks and valleys of the past year. Most recently, the upper ocean heat has diminished (cooled) and is supportive of restrengthening La Nina.

Tropical Storm Kay causes high wind, heavy rain and flash flooding across Southern California today. The heavy rain/flash flood risk expands into Central California tomorrow. A non-tropical heavy rain event causes heavy rain/flash flooding in the northeast Gulf States today.