Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-22 through MAR-23.
Discussion: In a rare occurrence, the projected U.S. gas population weight HDD for January 2023 is warmer than the already verified DEC-22 value and projected FEB-23 forecast (Fig. 1).
The 12Z GFS stays super warm. Arctic air is appearing in Canada but staying north of the U.S. The 15-day outlook is adjusted warmer in Eastern Canada (Fig. 2). The atmospheric river pattern slamming California abates in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).
The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast according to the 12Z GFS is warmer (by 13 HDD) for Jan. 20-26 (Table 1).
Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast and the 11-15-day percent of normal precipitation outlook.
|Dates||HDD Forecast||12-Hr Change||24-Hr Change||10-Year NML||30-Year NML|
Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.