January Warmest Month of Winter 2022-23 in U.S.

Core of Argentina Drought Area Continues to Strengthen
01/08/2023, 4:04 pm EST
Stratospheric Warming Event Evolving for Last 1/3 of January is Impressive
01/12/2023, 1:47 pm EST
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Fig. 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for NOV-22 through MAR-23.  

Discussion: In a rare occurrence, the projected U.S. gas population weight HDD for January 2023 is warmer than the already verified DEC-22 value and projected FEB-23 forecast (Fig. 1).

The 12Z GFS stays super warm. Arctic air is appearing in Canada but staying north of the U.S. The 15-day outlook is adjusted warmer in Eastern Canada (Fig. 2). The atmospheric river pattern slamming California abates in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast according to the 12Z GFS is warmer (by 13 HDD) for Jan. 20-26 (Table 1).

Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast and the 11-15-day percent of normal precipitation outlook.

DatesHDD Forecast12-Hr Change24-Hr Change10-Year NML30-Year NML
Jan. 6-12



Jan. 13-19



Jan. 20-26




Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.