The subtropical ridge over Southeast Brazil edges eastward in the 6-10-day period which allows a moisture feed from the deep tropics into central continent and a wetter forecast change.

Another very warm month was observed in October 2023 ranking 18th warmest in the 129-year climatology. The warmest states were New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region plus Arizona/New Mexico each in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. Only 9 of the 48 contiguous states averaged near normal with warmer than normal elsewhere.

River gauges along the central/south-central Mississippi River indicated a recent recovery to “low water” level. However, lack of rain in the 10-day-forecast causes water levels to lower again. At Tunica Mhoon Landing, water levels dip to 8 feet below “low water” by Nov. 21. The lowest level below “low water” was 10 feet one month ago.

The upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remains steadily very warm and supportive of maintaining the current robust oceanic El Nino episode.