The Climate Impact Company concern regarding the forecast track of Tropical Depression 9, which is certain to become a Gulf hurricane by early next week, is the more prominent hurricane forecast model HMNI and HWFI forecast track and intensities in the latest 5-day outlook.

Motivating a third year of La Nina is the enhancing warm effects on the western equatorial Pacific Ocean of the evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole. The -IOD pattern fades fast early next year. What follows is an equally rapid weakening of La Nina. The catalyst to sustain La Nina is gone and consequently the natural compensating ENSO reply to 3 years of La Nina is EL Nino later in 2023.

HWRF indicates Fiona may intensify to a 938-939 MH intense hurricane Thursday night. If so, Fiona should reach the category-4 intense hurricane level. The old Saffir-Simpson Scale indicated <945 MB qualifies as a category-4 storm. Given the warm water and the convective tail into the tropics, this system should have no problem getting close to this level of intensity.

Both the ECM and GFS re-intensify Fiona into a major hurricane late next week after the storm survives passage of the Hispaniola mountains early next week. ECM indicates Fiona approaches the Southeast U.S. Coast in 10 days. GFS is stronger with Fiona but keeps the northward traveling major hurricane offshore. Of course, the first issue is whether Fiona survives the Hispaniola Mountains.