Discussion: The NOAA/CPC long-lead probability forecasts identify several significant risks for the U.S. First, the drought in the Great Plains becomes more constricted to the far west/southwest Great Plains to west Texas during spring. As indicated by the CIC-CA outlooks issued last week, a wet spring is ahead for the East-central U.S. and some of that rain backs into the Great Plains. The NOAA/CPC April forecast is now wet in Texas. The warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic brings a warm bias to the South/East U.S. climate through 2023. The wet forecast in the East for summer 2023 is due to the increased low atmospheric moisture created by the warm Gulf/Atlantic SSTA pattern. The Northern Mid-Atlantic to Appalachia region should prepare for unusually wet weather during summertime. The BIG heat for summer 2023 is the 4 Corners region based on a large area of subsurface soil moisture deficit which increases risk of drought and attendant heat. NOAA/CPC drags the hot risk into Texas for summertime. Given the wet forecast in the East for summer, the very warm risk indicated by NOAA/CPC implies high humidity for the East States during summertime. NOAA/CPC indicates a warm El Nino winter 2023-24 for the East U.S. while the JUL/AUG/OCT 2023 precipitation probability forecast identifies an arc of rain (caused by a tropical cyclone) from Louisiana to the Mid-Atlantic States.
Some of the Charts
Fig: 1-2: The NOAA/CPC probability forecast for the U.S. during April 2023. Indicated is a warm bias for the South and East while the West Coast stays chilly. The outlook indicates wet risk in Texas/Louisiana and the Great Lakes region. California dries out.
Fig: 3-4: The previously issued April 2023 outlook from Climate Impact Company is wetter than NOAA for the East-central U.S. and warmer across the Southwest.
Fig: 5-6: The NOAA/CPC probability forecast for the U.S. during Q2 of 2023 is wet in the Ohio Valley with a dry bias in the Northwest and Southwest U.S. while the South and East maintain the warm risk.
Fig: 7: The NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook maintains the southwest Great Plains/western Texas drought with some westward expansion. Interior Northwest U.S. drought is also maintained. Drought eases in the North/Central Great Plains, Florida, and the Great Basin.
Fig: 8-9: The NOAA/CPC probability forecast for summertime indicates hot weather risk for most of the U.S. and a wet summer in the East.
Fig: 10-11: The NOAA/CPC temperature probability forecast for next winter favors another warm winter in the East. The NOAA/CPC precipitation probability forecast identifies a tropical cyclone path related wet weather scenario for the Gulf States to the Mid-Atlantic region for JUL/AUG/SEP 2023.