As expected, the next transient tropical Pacific Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode is evolving. A large area of anomalous convection across Indonesia extending to Northern Australia is expected over the next week (or more) producing excessive rainfall in these regions. The convective rains in this region are characteristic of MJO phase_4/phase_5 which is expected to strengthen over the next 7-10 days.

Anomalous heat builds across the Argentina Drought in the 6-10-day period. The next 10 days are dry in this critical crop area. Thunderstorms appear over Western Argentina in the 6-10-day period and there's a chance for a few thundershowers in the 11-15-day period.

Argentina drought continues but a super drought or flash drought is less likely given the current upper air pattern forecast. Later this summer, the upper trough is forecast to shift east and northeast allowing some drying into Southeast Brazil.

The larger aerial coverage of stronger cold for the 2022 arctic outbreak event is also expected to last longer than the 2013 episode only if the projected more expansive snow cover by the GFS ENS verifies.