Verifying the CIC-CA Summertime Forecast for South America

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Fig. 1-2: The meteorological summer 2022-23 temperature and precipitation anomaly verification for South America.

Discussion: The summer 2022-23 climate pattern across South America featured strong anomalous heat in Argentina to Northern Chile (Fig. 1) and combined with dryness in Argentina (Fig. 2) lead to another hostile drought regime. Much of summertime also produced a wet belt extending from Northern Paraguay to the central coast of Brazil. Typical La Nina-inspired rains were observed on the northern coast of South America. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast was correct with the Northern Chile heat but not hot enough across Argentina (Fig. 3). The Northeast Brazil anomalous hot summer forecast was on target. The precipitation forecast emphasized strongest dry conditions over Eastern Paraguay (Fig. 4). The heart of the dry climate (and attendant drought) was just south of that location. The CIC-CA wet forecast for the central coast of Brazil was correct although the wet anomaly did not extend far enough to the west to reach Paraguay. The northern continental rains were correctly projected by the CIC-CA outlook.

Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company summer 2022-23 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast issued last October.