ENSO forecasts by leading models project El Nino by June 2023. Historically, when NOV/DEC/JAN are still in moderate La Nina phase, the chance that El Nino forms the following boreal summer season is only 25%

A colder pattern change is ahead for the U.S. Details remain uncertain as to the depth and expanse of the cold weather. ECM ENS has the best opinion of all models and by days 11-15 indicates sprawling cold across the U.S.

The consensus of all forecast models U.S. gas population weight HDD projections through Feb. 9 yield a colder pattern ahead. National heating demand is certainly higher than normal for next week. However, note the discrepancy for next week as GFS forecasts near normal demand and GFS ENS/CMC ENS project significant heating demand. The national heating demand trend has increased since Friday for the Feb. 3-9 forecast.

The 12Z ECM indicates a large area of stratospheric warming shifts from Eurasia/Siberia across Alaska and into the U.S. late in the 10-day forecast. ECM is the first model to identify and deliver an arctic air mass to the North-central U.S. on day-10.