The latest monthly multivariate ENSO index is -1.1 which indicates a moderate-strength La Nina remains in-place. However, as La Nina enters a 4th year, the MEI observations are following the analog of 3 previous lengthy La Nina episodes and slowly weakening on the way toward El Nino by mid-year.

The warming of SSTA off the West Coast of South America the past 4-6 weeks has suddenly and vividly extended to the Nino12 SSTA region. The Nino12 SSTA is now +1.14C which is nearly 2C warmer than 30 days ago.

Historic warmth across the U.S. was observed in just-ended January. The month of January has been unusually warm in 3 of the last 4 years based on NOAA U.S. gas population weight HDD anomaly observations.

The next high impact event is an incoming arctic air mass likely most intense over New York and New England tomorrow into Saturday as Wind Chill Warnings are posted. Trailing the arctic front wind gusts to 40-50 mph can cause power outages arriving at a time when wind chill index is routinely 20F to 50F below zero.