The GFS 15-day upper air pattern forecast projects a super-amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge. Consequently, an unusually warm climate sets-up entering the New Year across Europe likely producing some record warmth!

An unusually intense storm system with central pressure plummeting to 970 MB just northeast of the Great Lakes by tomorrow evening while a 1055 MB arctic high enters Montana today propels a large list of hazardous weather which will include life threatening intensity beginning today and lasting into early weekend just ahead of Christmas.

As expected, the next transient tropical Pacific Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) episode is evolving. A large area of anomalous convection across Indonesia extending to Northern Australia is expected over the next week (or more) producing excessive rainfall in these regions. The convective rains in this region are characteristic of MJO phase_4/phase_5 which is expected to strengthen over the next 7-10 days.

Anomalous heat builds across the Argentina Drought in the 6-10-day period. The next 10 days are dry in this critical crop area. Thunderstorms appear over Western Argentina in the 6-10-day period and there's a chance for a few thundershowers in the 11-15-day period.