Tropical Storm 18 is located off the north-northwest coast of Australia and forecast to drift southwestward and become a major tropical cyclone within 48 hours and by midweek turn into the Port Hedland area as a category-4 tropical cyclone.

For now, prohibitive El Nino warming off the northwest coast of South America is blocked from westward progression by incoming col waters from the north.

Severe thunderstorms affect the East-central U.S. today. Tornadoes are expected in Iowa/Illinois to Missouri to Arkansas today. On Wednesday, the severe weather risk expands to include the Ohio Valley to Arkansas and Louisiana and includes additional tornado risk centered on the Ohio/Western Tennessee Valley.

The SSTA pattern in the Northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico identifies in-part why the weekend severe weather outbreak was so intense (2-day total of 1, 264 severe weather reports). The West U.S. trough well-correlated to persistent cool SSTA off the U.S. West Coast entrained more abundant moisture than normal from the much warmer than usual Gulf of Mexico.