A dry and hot forecast across a drought area also featuring dry subsurface soil conditions is the recipe for flash drought in Argentina as mid-January approaches.

Stratospheric warming taking place across Europe during the medium-range spawns vigorous cold centered on Northwest/North Russia by days 6-10 shifting toward Central Russia in teh 11-15-day period. However, no arctic air in North America.

The increasing storm track intensity in the U.S. bring brief cold pulses but generally not in high energy demand areas for home heating. Nationally, heating demand increases to near normal after early January.

Argentina drought is worsening as dry surface and deep layer soil moisture anomalies strengthen. The latest 15-day outlook emphasizes additional dry climate in this zone. Meanwhile, a strong wet monsoon emerges across Northern Australia.