The rainfall across parts of Brazil and Bolivia has been in the 4-8-inch range during the past week. Aerial coverage of the wet weather pattern is immense and includes most of Brazil (except northern areas) and Argentina (except western areas). Interestingly, the rainfall occurs during the subsidence phase (across the America tropics) of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) which normally inspires a drier South America climate.

An early season exercise in snowfall forecasting is offered by the emerging colder weather pattern shifting into the East and the interpretation by the GFS, ECM, and AIFS. Thanksgiving Day looks snowy as cold air filtering into a frontal zone stretched across central and southern New England yields a swath of day-long snow accumulating to 4-8 in. according to GFS.

The cool waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface to fuel La Nina is losing intensity. The anomalous cool waters present now is capable of marginal La Nina generation.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook weakens the Midwest and Interior Northwest drought conditions while maintaining drought in the Northeast Corridor, northwest Great Plains, and much of the southern states.