Although extended range U.S. forecasts trend milder overnight, there is a caveat for the Midwest to Northeast U.S. Corridor. During next week’s cold, the North and East U.S. storm track turns snowy. Consequently, as the U.S. enters the extended range, snow on the ground could allow chilly air to linger, especially in the Northeast.

In the 11-15-day period, AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is competitive with ECM ENS with a significant jump in skill score to defeat ECM ENS during the past 7 days. Once again, AIFS skill scores are middle of the road and GFS ranks last.

The persistent upper ridge has produced a dry climate over parts of Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region, and Western Russia leading to ongoing and strengthening drought in key agricultural areas.

The preferred 360-hour 500 MB anomaly forecast by AI Graph Cast ECM ENS indicates a cold longwave trough (with arctic air) across the West U.S. while an East U.S. ridge is shifting offshore and Northwest Eurasia is beneath an amplified ridge.