The HMON hurricane forecast model projects a 917 MB category-5 major hurricane well north of Puerto Rico Sunday evening. After day-5 (Sunday) where Lee will travel is very uncertain and obviously a major U.S. East Coast concern considering the west-northwest movement at category-5 intensity late Sunday.

August 2023 was very dry across the southwest and southeast/east continent with only parts of interior Western Australia wetter than normal. The dry bias to Australia climate caused by El Nino and positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) has emerged.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast identifies a steadily increasing cooling demand through early September. All models are in agreement on a potential record warm week of September 8-14.

The U.S. shifts into an extraordinarily warm September pattern as indicated in today's medium-range forecast which trends warmer in the 11-15-day period as indicated by ECM ENS. Almost the entire U.S. is warmer than normal as mid-September arrives.