The 2023 season so far is more active than normal with 17 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The amount of activity so far and outlook for the remainder of the season implies the consensus seasonal forecasts will be accurate.

Certainly, a cooler pattern change can emerge at any time. However, the process of generating cooler pattern change is made more difficult by the much warmer than normal mid-latitude ocean surface.

During September 2023 the jet stream axis across Argentina has averaged 25-45 mph stronger than normal. The 15-day forecast maintains the rapid jet stream forecasting 100-160 knots across Argentina. Meanwhile, just the opposite pattern counters that fast upper flow with titanic high pressure featuring much lighter than normal wind across Brazil.

The 12Z GFS develops a low-pressure area well northeast of the Bahamas late tomorrow with steady strengthening as the system moves north and northwest and inland eastern North Carolina Saturday morning. From there, the system weakens while inland drifting slowly to Delaware by Sunday evening.