After tomorrow, forecast confidence of where Hurricane Rafael travels is low (and lowering). The issue is the position of the subtropical ridge north and northeast of Rafael this weekend. If the ridge weakens, Rafael turns northward. If the ridge maintains strength, a westward drift continues and Rafael may be stronger.

East-central Brazil and North-central Argentina drought has eased. Forecasts have been wet the past 2+ weeks. However, the wet forecasts for the 6-10-day period are too wet, especially using the ECM. Based on rainfall bias skill scores, the GFS is the better forecast model to project the 14-day rainfall outlook.

In Eurasia, snow cover is ahead of schedule in Northeast Asia although lagging in Northwest Eurasia. A colder upper trough bringing snowfall to Northeast Eurasia is projected for next week.

The strongest transient convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) since January 2024 is forecast to shift east of the Dateline to close October. Short-term effects of MJO are in the tropics including intensifying Tropical Cyclone Kong-Rey forecast to become a category-4 major typhoon heading for Taiwan.