Transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) alters the prevailing jet stream pattern in the mid-latitudes that cause our sensible weather. The MJO is active heading toward November. Snow cover is ahead of schedule in Asia, typical of the past decade caused by cold wind across the open water north of the continent.

Wetter forecasts appeared over the weekend for the Great Plains and East-central U.S although models were inconsistent. The GFS is increasingly confident that wet weather appears across the western and northern Great Plains in the 6-10-day period shifting eastward and boldly across the Midwest States in the 11-15-day forecast.

Both ECM and AIFS agree that heavy rain evolves across Southeast Australia in the 10-day rainfall forecast. The bulk of the rain is in the 6-10-day period. During that time, a low-pressure area moves southwest to northeast across New South Wales focusing heavy rain along and south of the track.

In the latest (GFS) 15-day outlook, wet weather consolidates in Southwest Europe with a new wet zone emerging across the Black Sea region. The GFS indicates potential for excessive rainfall along the coastal portions of the Black Sea. However, limited rainfall reaches parched Southwest Russia. The GFS is the wettest of the operational models for both regions.