Oceanic El Nino 2023 remains moderate to strong. However, atmospheric El Nino is weaker. As an example of the weaker El Nino climate in place, the 500 MB relative humidity anomalies are somewhat wetter than normal across the entire equatorial Pacific rather than consolidated east of the Dateline typical of stronger El Nino episodes.

The subsurface warming in the East Pacific equatorial region peaked during July. Since that time, much of the subsurface warmth has shifted to the surface as oceanic El Nino has blossomed. The subsurface trend of late is a warmer westward push toward the Dateline.

In Europe, the wet forecasts from late last week trend wetter. A vigorous upper trough west of Europe expands into Europe and is semi-permanent into early November causing widespread 2-5 in. of rain.

The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day (HDD) forecast through the first third of November projects much below normal heating demand for the current week shifting to near the 30-year normal for late October and early November.