An early season exercise in snowfall forecasting is offered by the emerging colder weather pattern shifting into the East and the interpretation by the GFS, ECM, and AIFS. Thanksgiving Day looks snowy as cold air filtering into a frontal zone stretched across central and southern New England yields a swath of day-long snow accumulating to 4-8 in. according to GFS.

The cool waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface to fuel La Nina is losing intensity. The anomalous cool waters present now is capable of marginal La Nina generation.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook weakens the Midwest and Interior Northwest drought conditions while maintaining drought in the Northeast Corridor, northwest Great Plains, and much of the southern states.

The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation (QPF) forecast projects 10-20 in. of rain (and many feet of mountain snow) centered on Northern California. The persistent storm track through the weekend is part of an "atmospheric river" storm track.