Global soil moisture trend during Q3/2023 featured MUCH DRIER changes across already drought-stricken Mexico and into Texas plus North/Central Brazil to Argentina all related to the El Nino warm oceans of the far eastern tropical Pacific. Wetter soils were observed across the Northeast U.S. where record rainfall occurred and the Southwest U.S. In South America, El Nino-like conditions affected Southeast Brazil and Chile.

Next week a major rainfall event is indicated across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A frontal system stalls over the northwest/north Gulf while to the south a tropical system emerges. The combination of the two events leads too heavy to extreme rain.

Comparing September 2023, the 9th month of an El Nino year, to the past 3 vigorous or moderate El Nino episodes indicates El Nino 2023 is moderately strong and trending toward the weaker El Nino’s regarding subsurface fuel supply and sustain the warm ENSO event.

The 12Z GFS 15-day forecast is much wetter across most of the eastern half of the U.S. If so, much needed rainfall occurs in the Mississippi River Valley where river levels have been very low in recent weeks.