Energy markets grapple with risk of arctic air intrusion to the U.S. in 10+ days due to presence of a stratospheric warming event emerging over Eurasia over the next week or so, shifting into northwest North America in 10 days, and likely collapsing in 15 days (according to NOAA/CPC).

In summary, the combination of an eastward shifting MJO across the tropical Atlantic and stratospheric warming over Siberia to northwest North America increases the risk of a brief sneaky cold pattern in North America. Forecast models indicate a low risk but close monitoring for significant changes of the forecast in early January is warranted. Through 10 days, AI models do not see the cold air risk for the U.S.

Natural gas markets are concerned regarding the mid-winter El Nino analogs which end the early winter warmth and introduce colder/snowy weather for January increasing heating demand. An added concern is the emergence in the past 2 days of stratospheric warming forecasts in 12-16 days across North/Northeast Asia to the polar region.