In the 11-15-day period, AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is competitive with ECM ENS with a significant jump in skill score to defeat ECM ENS during the past 7 days. Once again, AIFS skill scores are middle of the road and GFS ranks last.

The persistent upper ridge has produced a dry climate over parts of Eastern Europe, the Black Sea region, and Western Russia leading to ongoing and strengthening drought in key agricultural areas.

The preferred 360-hour 500 MB anomaly forecast by AI Graph Cast ECM ENS indicates a cold longwave trough (with arctic air) across the West U.S. while an East U.S. ridge is shifting offshore and Northwest Eurasia is beneath an amplified ridge.

The latest Nino34 SSTA forecasts from the CFS V2 model confidently project moderate La Nina to finish northern hemisphere meteorological winter followed by weakening to neutral ENSO mid-year. The latest 8 ensemble members of CFS V2 forecast indicate a wide variety of ENSO phase possibilities by OCT-25 which identifies a low confidence projection.