Soaking wet soils are present across the Northwest U.S. and parts of the West Coast. However, our concern in this report is the emerging excessive soil moisture across the northern Mid-Atlantic region and the southern half of New England. The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) indicates prohibitive rainfall in the coastal Northeast Corridor region.

The warm pattern is relentless. Combining the GFS and ECM yields more prohibitive warmth across much of North America in the medium range. There are signs of cooler weather in 15 days. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trend is much warmer since Friday.

As meteorological winter ends, the polar ice cap is near the record lowest amount observed during the 2011-12 winter. The polar climate was exceptionally mild this just-ended winter season.

Long-term drought concerns in the U.S. identified by the (experimental) long-term multi-indicator drought index which combine both short and long-term (up to 5 years) precipitation trend and water from snowmelt include the 4-Corners region including the Texas Panhandle, the U.S. Corn Belt, southern Mississippi Valley, and the Northwest U.S.