Next week, the ECM is forecasting a low-pressure area to cutoff in the East causing a potential excessive rainfall episode in the Mid-Atlantic States. Using Richmond, VA as an example, rainfall could accumulate to 5-6 in. according to ECM while other models (GFS and GFS ENS) are not nearly as wet.

The 12-month U.S. precipitation trend is useful to determine what parts of the U.S. have the worst drought condition and potential for additional rapid decline in soil moisture given presence of a dry and warm climate as summer arrives. Clearly, the worst conditions are in Nevada/Arizona and Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey.

The solar maxima for cycle 25 has (apparently) passed although double (maxima) spikes during the last 2 solar maxima suggest another spike in solar activity is possible before a new solar cycle (26) initiates.

During Q4/2024 and Q1/2025 the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) was active. Another weak-to-moderate wave of the convection phase of MJO is forecast into the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the next 2 weeks.