A conservative projection of sea level height anomalies across the Gulf of Mexico now is in the 2-6-inch range. When tropical cyclones pass across the higher sea level, the wedge of water pushed inland by a storm surge is considerably higher.

Upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean remain warmer than normal but at less intensity as indicated 2 months ago. Meanwhile, cooling in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is impressive but not realized at the ocean surface as ENSO has settled into neutral phase.

NOAA/NHC identified an area of disorganized low pressure southwest of Tampa, FL earlier today forecast to drift northeastward, crossing the Florida Peninsula, and re-emerging off the northeast Florida Coast within 36 hours. Strengthening prior to striking the Florida West Coast is unlikely due to upper shear although SST is a buoyant 86F and supports organization.

The NOAA/WPC 5-day rainfall forecast indicates up to 20 inches of rain across southwest Florida. The heavy rain is caused by a fetch of tropical moisture across Florida to the south of a stationary frontal system across Northern Florida. In the 6-7-day period the rainfall area shifts westward to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with a chance of some tropical development.