Operational models are indicating increased risk of anomalous wet weather across much of the Southern U.S. and Brazil during early-to-middle June. Support for the wetter tropical/subtropical weather is increasing as forecasts of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) are trending stronger east of the Dateline in the tropics to the American longitudes (phase_7 and phase_8).

Another week of severe storms and heavy rain in the Central/East U.S. followed by an unusually cool ending to May as indicated by next week's U.S. population weight cooling degree day forecast utilizing all forecast models.

The latest JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 global SSTA forecast from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology reveals neutral ENSO with slight warming of the Nino SSTA regions, the beginnings of negative phase Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD), and a summertime North Atlantic basin which is warmer than normal although not nearly as warm as recent years.

The oceanic ENSO projection favors the possibility of El Nino late this year while the atmospheric ENSO forecast is neutral phase. Dynamic models favor neutral ENSO phase although tilted toward La Nina returning if any deviation. Analog and dynamic models are, at least a little, disagreeable.