In a new twist, ECM is forecasting a cold stratosphere across the polar region and eastern North America in the 11-15-day period. Elusive stratospheric warming shifts to Eurasia. Beneath the cold stratosphere, GFS indicates a mild ridge pattern in the East U.S. instead of an evolving polar vortex pattern as previously reported.

An expected cold change in January for North America is indicated by ECMWF which is vividly much colder in the extended range outlook. Most of the precipitation across the Northern U.S. is snow helping to enhance the cold.

The next cold temperature issue arises in the week-3 forecast when all “weeklies” models project an evolving upper trough in the East U.S. ECM continues with the strongest trough forecast. For the moment, arctic air is not anticipated with this upper trough.

Typical of climate pattern(s) nowadays, regional SSTA are influencing local climate in unexpected ways. The best recent example is the cooling of the western North Atlantic basin initiated by north-turning tropical cyclones during the late warm season. The low-pressure area off the U.S. East Coast has invited surprising chill to the East U.S. as meteorological winter begins.