During the past week, extreme heat has attacked Northern Argentina to Southwest Brazil where weekly temperature anomalies are in the +4C to +8C range. As a result, sudden drying of soils has developed and accelerated in Northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Southwest Brazil.

Winter 2023-24 forecast verification: The Climate Impact Company (CIC) DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 temperature and precipitation outlook scored exceptionally well except for the cold regime in Northwest Russia.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is located over the Maritime Continent and increasing intensity. The influence on South America climate when MJO is in phase_4 is dryness across Brazil. The latest ECM ENS 15-day upper air forecast indicates the subtropical ridge is parked over Southeast Brazil, strongest over the next 15 days.

The meteorological winter 2023-24 was the warmest on record (Fig. 3). This observation is made more impressive given that there was one arctic outbreak during mid-winter. Warmer than normal mid-latitude SSTA contributed to the already mild bias caused by El Nino. Record warmth was observed in 8 states: North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire.