The daily soil moisture anomalies across the U.S. reveal two trend lines during February. The Midwest States are turning drier. Additionally, the Texas Panhandle drought is worsening, and the Mid-south States are encountering drier soil conditions.

The U.S. pattern is fast-moving and produces dramatic thermal contrast from one air mass to the next. An example of the extremes is indicated by ECMWF for next Tuesday afternoon when arctic air surges into Southwest Canada featuring temperatures of -20F to -30F while ahead of the arctic front record warm low 80’s extend to Kansas.

In a statement from earlier today The Australia Bureau of Meteorology emphasized, and Climate Impact Company fully agrees, that the warming of the oceans during the past 50 years could cause interruptions in our historical understanding of ENSO events including making forecasts. Low confidence for second half of 2024 ENSO forecasts!

Stratospheric warming has triggered arctic air across Russia. The frigid air mass expands toward China later this month. In North America, the pattern stays mild the second half of February.