NOAA/NHC identified an area of disorganized low pressure southwest of Tampa, FL earlier today forecast to drift northeastward, crossing the Florida Peninsula, and re-emerging off the northeast Florida Coast within 36 hours. Strengthening prior to striking the Florida West Coast is unlikely due to upper shear although SST is a buoyant 86F and supports organization.

The NOAA/WPC 5-day rainfall forecast indicates up to 20 inches of rain across southwest Florida. The heavy rain is caused by a fetch of tropical moisture across Florida to the south of a stationary frontal system across Northern Florida. In the 6-7-day period the rainfall area shifts westward to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with a chance of some tropical development.

The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates gathering tropical rains across Florida beginning later this weekend and strengthening early next week. Monitoring for possible tropical cyclone development is underway!

U.S. population weight CDD for May 2024 was 117 which is very close to the 10-year normal (118). Natural gas traders are generally more reliant on the 10-year normal as a reference therefore May is considered a near normal cooling demand month to start the 2024 warm season. In June, due to the incoming Midwest trough, the CDD forecast is cut to 230 which is substantially below the 10-year normal of 252.