In the Central U.S., the 15-day forecast trend is wetter. The GFS ENS indicates 3-5-in. rainfall amount across the Upper Midwest and Mid-south States. Severe weather is involved with the wet forecast and likely forces agriculture delays. The 24-hour change is wetter for both heavy rain regions.

Given the distinct cool West and warm East U.S. temperature signature of meteorological spring 2024 surprising was the sudden amplified upper trough in the East U.S. via an 11-15-day forecast by the AI 4Cast.Net V2 outlook issued on April 28th. The AI-generated forecast easily defeated operational models.

The first major heatwave of the season in the U.S. is ahead for Texas next week. The heat dome over Mexico during springtime amplifies and causes hot and humid conditions across Texas next week. Widespread 90’s with 100’s southwest state is likely. Heat indices are well above 100F.

In the Gulf of Mexico, rapid warming has occurred. The basin average is a robust warm +1.14C which is almost 1C warmer than one month ago. The Gulf of Mexico warming is likely attributed to the nearby Mexico heatwave and attendant strong upper-level subtropical ridge.