The CFS V2 July 2025 climate forecast across Europe and Western Russia projects an upper-level high pressure system cresting over the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border. Previously issued ECM “weeklies” indicate the high pressure is slightly eastward. The sensible climate forecast projects widespread hot and dry weather across Central and East Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia.

The 12Z GFS maintains an over-the-weekend cold risk into Southeast Brazil on TUE/WED morning. The cold risk reaches the southern Brazil coffee-growing areas each morning. Some damage is possible given the GFS outlook.

Erick intensified rapidly to a category-4 major hurricane overnight approaching the south coast of Mexico. A leading contributor to the rapid intensification was the available upper ocean heat which increased dramatically on approach to the coast as indicated by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) to 86-87F.

To illustrate the eagerness of GFS to forecast low pressure and increased tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf of Mexico was apparent earlier this month with low pressure risk appearing in the 8-14/11-15-day period. By comparison, ECM offered no threatening low pressure for the entire 15-day forecast during the first 10 days of June. Today’s forecast by GFS indicates low pressure in the 10-12-day period while ECM maintains all clear.