The 2024 Europe selected cities cooling degree day (CDD) forecasts issued by Climate Impact Company (CIC) reveal that, on average, each month of the warm season ahead will produce CDD totals similar with the 10-year normal. The exception is May (cooler) and September (warmer).

NOAA/SPC projects a severe weather outbreak centered on the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Tornado risk is highest in Indiana and Ohio. HRRR projects the strongest radar return of new severe thunderstorms later today at 5PM CDT with widespread streaks of squall lines most potent in Indiana where tornado risk is high.

Note the anomalous warmth in the south and southeast North Atlantic basin. That’s at least twice as warm as the previous record warm signature. A marine heat wave off Northwest Africa is the catalyst for the warming.

An excessive rainfall episode reminiscent of “Harvey” in 2017 steadily emerged over east and north Texas, Oklahoma, and into Louisiana and Arkansas throughout the past week. Rainfall amount in the 10-20 in. range is common in-between Houston and south of Dallas with peak amount (as of dawn yesterday) at Groveton, TX where 23.56 in. of rain was observed.