The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is located over the Maritime Continent and increasing intensity. The influence on South America climate when MJO is in phase_4 is dryness across Brazil. The latest ECM ENS 15-day upper air forecast indicates the subtropical ridge is parked over Southeast Brazil, strongest over the next 15 days.

The meteorological winter 2023-24 was the warmest on record (Fig. 3). This observation is made more impressive given that there was one arctic outbreak during mid-winter. Warmer than normal mid-latitude SSTA contributed to the already mild bias caused by El Nino. Record warmth was observed in 8 states: North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Soaking wet soils are present across the Northwest U.S. and parts of the West Coast. However, our concern in this report is the emerging excessive soil moisture across the northern Mid-Atlantic region and the southern half of New England. The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) indicates prohibitive rainfall in the coastal Northeast Corridor region.

The warm pattern is relentless. Combining the GFS and ECM yields more prohibitive warmth across much of North America in the medium range. There are signs of cooler weather in 15 days. The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trend is much warmer since Friday.