Upper ocean heat in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline is increasing rapidly. Implied is peak El Nino 2023-24 strength is just ahead arriving for mid-winter in the northern hemisphere.

Meteorologists and market analysts are gearing up for sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events which traditionally cause displacement of the polar vortex and arctic air outbreaks into the middle latitudes of North America and Eurasia. However, research has revealed that a different type of stratospheric interaction with the troposphere is causing the most recent arctic outbreaks across North America.

The outlook provided by Climate Impact Company indicates above normal risk of cold weather for JAN/FEB. Cited is increased risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) which could cause moderately strong (and brief) polar vortex events that generate cold weather in the U.S. with the greatest risk in February. Note that if these events fail to form, the forecast is likely much warmer.

The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to indicate an El Nino 2023-24 peak over the next 1-2 months followed by a steady weakening signature for the first half of 2024 to neutral ENSO mid-year. The latest 8 ensemble members of the Nino34 SSTA forecast indicate a vigorous ENSO phase change to La Nina for JUL/AUG of 2024!