East-central Brazil and North-central Argentina drought has eased. Forecasts have been wet the past 2+ weeks. However, the wet forecasts for the 6-10-day period are too wet, especially using the ECM. Based on rainfall bias skill scores, the GFS is the better forecast model to project the 14-day rainfall outlook.

In Eurasia, snow cover is ahead of schedule in Northeast Asia although lagging in Northwest Eurasia. A colder upper trough bringing snowfall to Northeast Eurasia is projected for next week.

The strongest transient convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) since January 2024 is forecast to shift east of the Dateline to close October. Short-term effects of MJO are in the tropics including intensifying Tropical Cyclone Kong-Rey forecast to become a category-4 major typhoon heading for Taiwan.

In Europe, an evolving sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia index in early November indicates an amplified upper ridge over Northwest Eurasia and a compensating trough into Southeast Europe. The upper trough brings stormy and much cooler weather to Europe to Southwest Russia in the medium range.