A tropical cyclone is forecast to generate in the western Caribbean Sea in a couple days and then turn northwest and north becoming a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico heading toward the Big Bend Area in northwest Florida. GFS, ECM, and AIFS are in reasonable agreement with landfall but vary widely with where the storm tracks once inland.

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward from Maritime Continent (of the past several weeks) across the tropical East Pacific to tropical Africa over the next 2-3 weeks. The eastward shift should activate the North Atlantic tropics and increase risk of a wider wet weather pattern for Brazil.

The weekly Crop Moisture Index valid for Sep. 8-14 reveals a wetter regime across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while opposing critically dry conditions exist in the eastern Ohio Valley, much of the west and southwest Great Plains, and Southwest U.S.

At 5AM EDT Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 was located at 32.4N/78.3W or about 95 miles east-southeast of Charleston, SC. This system is moving northwest at 3 mph with top wind near 50 mph and central pressure 1006 MB. A large mass of heavy thunderstorms is north and east of a low-pressure area off the Carolina Coast. NOAA/NHC claims the low-pressure area is struggling to gain subtropical or tropical storm characteristics.