NOAA issues new climate long-lead probability forecasts which include a dry and mostly hot late warm season projection in the Central U.S. causing drought to expand to the Midwest States.

Medium-range forecasts trend wetter across the central Great Plains and particularly the U.S. Corn Belt as we try to deter spreading drought caused by the current hot/dry weather pattern. However, a pattern change featuring an upper-level ridge over the Midwest U.S. is seen in 15 days.

The subsurface warming has started to reverse. During the past 7-10 days the upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is now cooler than normal (again). The cooler change suggests La Nina will continue.

Possibly record warm SSTA off the East Asia Coast foreshadows a dry/hot upper ridge possibility for East China to Japan. In September, any land-falling typhoons will be much more powerful than normal due to the warm SSTA.