Since the middle 1990’s, the “activeness” of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity has generally been above too much above normal due to the long-term warm cycle of AMO and the lack of El Nino presence (only 24% of the months from 1995-2022).

East-central/East China wheat-growing areas have turned much drier in recent weeks. Last week no rainfall was reported in this region and 15-day outlooks maintain the dry concern.

Projected by using a SSTA-based constructed analog, the prevailing upper air pattern across North America for meteorological summer and autumn 2022 plus winter 2022-23.

The GFS produced a consistent tropical cyclone risk in their medium/extended-range forecasts since late last week. However, the GFS has dropped that idea late last night and today. Instead, GFS produces an excessive rainfall episode as an upper trough entrains western Gulf of Mexico moisture next week producing >10 in. of rain in some spots based on today’s 12Z GFS.