Glancing at the SST across the Gulf of Mexico reveals normally warm 29C/85F in the southeast Gulf although north of the Yucatan Peninsula is cooler than normal. In the central Gulf SST warms slightly to a near normal 85.5F. However, the west-central/east-central Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal (86F-86.5F) and somewhat warmer than normal in the northwest Gulf (87F).

The combination of a warmer than normal eastern Indian Ocean (negative Indian Ocean Dipole), La Nina biased toward the Dateline (Modoki) and a warm tropical Atlantic produce rainfall patterns that could benefit the Brazil drought zone.

The updated NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecast for September indicates an increased risk of above normal rain across Louisiana and the Mid-Atlantic region possibly related to tropical cyclone activity.

The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook.