Mindy became the 13th named storm of the 2021 tropical cyclone season late yesterday and is now inland weakening to a depression. The next significant tropical rainfall event for the U.S. begins this weekend and lasts through next week on the coast of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 5-10 in. of rain (or more) is possible although not directly related to a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance 91L is drifting northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle and is strengthening. There is a slight risk 91L could become a tropical storm before making landfall early tomorrow on the Florida Panhandle.

In the weekly ENSO diagnostics report we take a look at the continued cooling in the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean signaling La Nina onset for Q4 of 2021.

Hurricane Larry is forecast to reach category-3 major hurricane intensity BEFORE reaching 84-85F water surface in the western North Atlantic basin. The concern is a larger and more intense storm may resist (initially) a north to northeast turn leaving the U.S. East Coast at risk of a nearby major hurricane.