Monitoring A Strong Kelvin Wave But Will ENSO Stay Weak La Nina or Neutral in 2018?

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A thorough review of ENSO analogs yields a La Nina weakening followed by neutral phase in 2018.

Headline: Strong Kelvin Wave Near Dateline Stronger BUT Will Eastward Progression Duck Beneath Cool Fuel Sustaining La Nina?

Discussion: NOAA indicates an immense Kelvin Wave showing some eastward progression during the past week.  The eastward progression is extending downward and beneath the existing cool water supply in the subsurface East Pacific to sustain La Nina. There is a chance the strong Kelvin Wave weakens shifting east and stays very deep. Interaction with MJO would make the Kelvin Wave more significant dissipating La Nina but MJO is not active. The NCEP CFS V2 ENSO forecast stubbornly indicates a persistent La Nina in 2018. The latest constructed analog forecast by Climate Impact indicates neutral ENSO ahead (rather than a trend toward El Nino previously indicated).

Fig. 1: 12-week Nino SSTA observations indicate a steady weak La Nina.

Fig. 2: NOAA subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly analysis identifies a Kelvin Wave moving east of the Dateline.

Fig. 3: NOAA CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates persistent weak La Nina in 2018.

Fig. 4: The Climate Impact Company analog forecast indicates neutral ENSO is ahead.