Seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks are issued by early April. A contribution to the forecast process is the tropical North Atlantic index which represents the SSTA pattern between the Caribbean Sea and Northwest Africa Coast and has observed significant cooling during the past 30 days.

One way to generate a flash drought is presence of an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge during summertime across a region hampered by deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficit. Precipitation deficits over a 9-month (or more) period leads to deep layer soil moisture shortages.

The Alaska high-pressure "ridge bridge" guides arctic air cross-polar into a longwave trough over North America the next week or so causing an unusually cold outbreak. However, immediately thereafter the pattern flips warmer.

La Nina weakened due to emergence of a subsurface Kelvin Wave in the equatorial East Pacific in early February. However, that influence is fading, trade winds are increasing and La Nina has regained some strength the past 2 weeks.