The deep cold of mid-winter becomes choppy the first half of February maintaining above normal national heating demand for the U.S. However, later February the U.S. pattern shifts warmer.

The 12Z GFS indicates a long-duration snowfall event along and trailing a cold front which shifts eastward slowly this week. The snow begins tomorrow night in the south/east Great Plains and stretches to the Ohio Valley and then eastward into New England for later this week. GFS grinds out 1-2 feet of snow across this large area - which is likely excessive, but the model certainly makes its point.

Traditionally, a “bomb cyclone” is a low-pressure system deepening (strengthening) by more than 24 MB over a 24-hour period. The definition usually applies to middle/upper middle latitude. Although a “bomb cyclone” is not a tropical cyclone, these systems can reach category-1 hurricane force on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

NOAA issues a Winter Storm Watch for the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England coastline. ECMWF is most aggressive with the snowfall amount forecast for New England where 10-20 in. of snow acros southeast Massachusetts is indicated. Of note, the GFS forecast is considerably lower as the storm is farther offshore.