During March, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) was strong and caused anomalous convection in the far western equatorial Pacific region. The rising air currents associated with the convection is replaced from the east by increasing trade winds which has up-welled cooler subsurface waters and caused the central/east-central equatorial Pacific to cool restrengthening La Nina.

A pattern change is indicated next week in Europe. For 2-3 weeks Europe has been mostly mild and very dry while the Black Sea region (including Ukraine) cold and snowy. Next week, the Scandinavia index flips negative and a ferocious upper trough pushes much cooler air across the northern half of Europe coupled with an impressive storm track across U.K. and into Western Russia including Ukraine.

The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates potential for excessive amount centered on the Mid-South U.S. Included is several days of severe weather!

The preliminary population weight CDD anomaly forecast by month for April to October 2022 indicates a similar structure to each of the last 3 seasons whereas the season starts marginally warm, becomes quite hot during mid-to-late summer and eases back toward normal by October.