For now, the U.S. looks mostly warm south of snow cover for the last 1/3 of December. However, given a developing -NAO pattern some of the Canadian chill may want to thrust southward. Meanwhile a cold pattern change is indicated for Europe next week.

The MJO has been mostly dormant in the vicinity of Indonesia or westward since October. However, a slow eastward shift with intensification is underway the past 1-2 weeks. MJO has shifted toward the Pacific Dateline and a further eastward drift is indicated through the middle third of December. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial West Pacific is responding as warmth increases and shifts to the Dateline.

A strong cold front brings widespread high wind from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today while a series of winter storms are ahead in the West, most focused on California.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast by all models through Dec. 17-23 is ridiculously warm. The trend since Monday is somewhat warmer. Climate Impact Company projects the second warmest December this century.